ISSN (print) 1995-2732
ISSN (online) 2412-9003


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DOI: 10.18503/1995-2732-2022-20-4-144-153


Problem Statement (Relevance). Objectively observed globalization processes and accompanying changes in the configuration of spatially organized systems raises the relevance of development of new methods for estimating settlement systems. The concept of polycentric development takes a central stage in the system of spatial strategizing in European countries. Proponents of the concept believe that its successful implementation at various levels of hierarchically organized systems will reduce the asymmetry of social and economic development of regions and improve access of people to transport and social infrastructure regardless of their places of residence. In the context of the widespread use of automated management decision-making systems, it is necessary to assess advantages and disadvantages of the existing polycentricity estimation methods. Objectives. The aim of the study is to identify the features of applying various polycentricity estimates, depending on the analysis method used, the number of relevant objects under observation and the level of data aggregation. Methods Applied. The paper presents a comparative analysis of 7 methods for estimating polycentricity. The study is conducted on a large array of data, including 18,944 territorial units in the context of 82 constituent territories of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2020. Originality. We revealed the dependences of polycentricity estimates on the number of observations, the applied methods and the level of aggregation. Result. The comparative analysis showed inconsistency in the polycentricity estimates made by different methods. The regions that demonstrated contradictory estimates of polycentricity/monocentricity are identified and the sensitivity of the results to the number of observations included is justified. The high dependence of the rank correlation coefficient on the level of aggregation of the data used in the calculation is determined. Practical Relevance. The revealed features of the polycentricity estimates of the Russian settlement system as an example can be used when preparing provisions of a policy on territorial development of regions and settlements.


polycentricity, settlement systems, estimation methods, level of data aggregation

For citation

Krasnoselskaya D.Kh., Timiryanova V.M. Estimate of Settlement Systems’ Polycentricity: Sensitivity to Methods, Number of Observations and a Level of Data Aggregation. Vestnik Magnitogorskogo Gosudarstvennogo Tekhnich-eskogo Universiteta im. G.I. Nosova [Vestnik of Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University]. 2022, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 144-153.

Dina Kh. Krasnoselskaya – PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Ufa State Petroleum Technological University, Ufa, Russia. Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. ORCID 0000-0002-1668-2937

Venera M. Timiryanova – DrSc (Economics), Associate Professor, Bashkir State University, Ufa, Russia. Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. ORCID 0000-0002-1004-0722

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